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In SOS email #18, released the morning following Thanksgiving, we pointed out that the Bike Plan in its 400 pages never mentioned anything about cost. That same afternoon, city staff added cost information (see bike plan Appendix C)—$16,086,047. However, right-of-way costs were omitted. Considering that the bike plan is so specific as to streets targeted and how those streets are to be altered, it seems to us that right-of-way needs and estimated costs could have and should have been included as part of the total. Right of way is expensive, especially where property owners resist the taking of their land.
That said, we believe the $16,086,047 total, with or without right-of-way information, grossly understates the true cost of the bike plan because it ignores other key expenses. It is difficult to believe 240 streets (a total of 271.7 lane miles (see Bike Plan section/page 3-12) can be reconfigured for bicycles and the cost be just $16,086,047.
We believe the proposed street/bike plan will, if fully implemented, become a billion dollar boondoggle for Arlington, a claim we do not lightly make. Here are all the costs we anticipate:
1) COST: $16 MILLION plus right of way where applicable (Bike Plan Appendix C total). All costs appear to be associated with street restriping, new bicycle signage, etc. This figure does not account for the value of the traffic lanes that will be converted from vehicular to bicycle use (see item 2 below).
2) COST: $271.7 MILLION. A mile of street lane costs $1 million or more to construct. The bike plan will convert 271.7 miles (see bike plan section 3-5) of street lanes from vehicle use to bicycle use. When the time comes to reconstruct a worn out street, the cost to replace the bicycle lane and the traffic lanes will be the same—over one million dollars per mile.
3) COST: $561.7 MILLION public gasoline consumption caused by increased traffic congestion. The new bike/street plan will, according to city planners, lead to a one minute additional drive time per day per citizen. Given the propensity to understate bad news, we believe the planned “traffic calming” (intentional congestion) described in the street/bike plan will yield two minutes delay per citizen per day or even more. Because of slower (and thus longer) drive times, the citizens of Arlington could spend as much as 12,000 hours per day in their cars, needlessly burning an extra $561.7 million worth of fuel over the 15-year life of this plan. For full details, go to our web site and see “SOS Update #10: New street/bike plan could cost the citizens far more than anticipated.”
4) COST: ??? MILLION. In the case of streets that were narrowed from 4 traffic lanes to 2 in order to make room for bike lanes, the cost of adding back 2 traffic lanes will be extreme, as doing so will require buying additional right of way and then widening the entire street. The per-mile cost of converting such a street back to 4 lanes will be $6 to $7 million per mile.
5) COST: ??? MILLION. When a street is reduced from 4 to 2 traffic lanes, traffic doubles on those remaining lanes and they wear out much more quickly, resulting in an accelerated need for street repairs and replacement. The more frequent repair and reconstruction cycles will be a significant new burden to taxpayers, and to businesses who will suffer due to reduced access to customers.
6) COST: ??? MILLION. The imposition of new building codes, fees, and other requirements crafted to encourage bicycling will place further cost burdens on Arlington residents and businesses. There are 44 bicycle-related changes to zoning ordinances, subdivision rules, codes, and design criteria listed in the bike plan, and more would certainly follow (see bike plan, section 6, pg 1-8).
7) COST: ??? MILLION. These new building codes, fees, and other requirements will discourage new commercial and residential development in Arlington.
8) COST: ??? MILLION. One of the more troubling mandates in the bike plan is a requirement for “changing stations,” facilities with personal lockers, showers, sinks, benches, etc. where bicycle riders can change from their sweaty street Spandex to ordinary work clothes before walking the remaining few blocks to work. Businesses above a certain size will be required to provide these facilities. Smaller businesses would pay a prorated fee for the changing station serving their area. A changing station able to accommodate even moderate use would require 5,000 sq. ft. and cost $1 million or more. Because each would need to be within a few blocks of the bicyclist’s final destination, a significant number would be necessary in order to provide changing service throughout the city. Changing stations will be one of the new building code requirements beginning in 2012-2013 (see bike plan section 7, pg 15).
9) COST: ??? MILLION. Bicycling to work or other utilitarian activity by bicycle will not replace cars in any statistically meaningful way, but the bike plan will increase air pollution because, through “street dieting,” “traffic calming,” and other strategies devised to slow traffic and even intentionally induce congestion (“where congestion is desired,” see street plan, chapter 2, pg 7), the street/bike plan will keep cars and trucks on our streets thousands of hours more than necessary every day. It would take an incredible number of bike trips just to offset the increased gasoline use—much more than will ever happen, given our weather, demographics, and the inherent advantages of the automobile. Thus the environmental remediation costs under the bike plan will go up rather than down.
We have nothing against bicycle riders or off-road bicycle paths that are in parks or on other non-street right-of-ways. We also believe that very limited on-street bike lanes can be justified on a few streets, UTA to the downtown area being a prime example. But the taxpayers and business community of Arlington should not be asked to walk the fiscal-plank for the benefit of a select few.
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